Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry

Sales tax hike may determine Brewer's fate

PHOENIX -- The May 18 election to hike sales taxes could shape up as an early indicator of whether Gov. Jan Brewer has a political future.

For months, the governor has been pretty much the main cheerleader for the plan to temporarily hike the state's 5.6 percent sales tax rate by a penny. Brewer, who first proposed the levy in March, finally got her wish earlier this week when lawmakers agreed to put the question to voters.

But Brewer's three Republican foes already have staked out positions in opposition to the plan. All three argue that the budget can be balanced without the approximately $1 billion a year the levy would raise, though only John Munger has actually released an alternative plan.

Paulden businessman Owen Buz Mills said that May 18 vote may be the best thing that could happen for his bid to become the GOP nominee.

"It's going to be a big promotion for my campaign," he said. Mills said it will point up the fact that Brewer wants to spend more while he wants to spend less.

"I think the people are going to resoundingly defeat this," Mills said.

State Treasurer Dean Martin agreed the May election could be a referendum on what will happen in the August GOP primary.

"If it passes, it may help her," he said.

"If it fails, it definitely kills her," Martin continued. But he hedged his bets, saying the outcome of the vote is "not necessarily a guarantee in either direction."

Munger, like Mills, predicted the measure will go down to defeat. And he said the people who vote "no" on the tax hike are the same ones who will show up at the polls three months later to cast their ballots against Brewer -- and, he presumes, for him.

That, of course, remains to be seen.

Brewer said Friday she is counting on supporters to finance the kind of statewide campaign that will be necessary to convince voters that the want to pay more in taxes.

"I am hoping that somebody will pick up the mantle and lead with it," she said.

Glenn Hamer, president of the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said his group already has decided it will work to convince voters to adopt the plan. Hamer said, though, the extent of that support -- at least in dollars and cents -- remains to be decided.

And Brewer said she will use her position to push the plan.

"I certainly will be out there urging people to consider what will take place if it's not enacted by the voters," the governor said.

Even after the current $1.4 billion deficit is resolved, the state still faces a possible $3.4 billion gap next fiscal year between revenues and expenses.

Brewer said that is going to require even more cuts than the ones that have taken place. But she said they will be even more severe without the revenues from the sales tax.

Munger figures that just having Brewer on the campaign trail for the tax hike is good news for him. He said that push is going to hurt her among the conservative Republicans she needs to get her party's nomination.

"Most people voting in the primary do not support a sales tax increase," he said. "Whether she wins it or she loses at the polls on sales tax referral, she's completely alienated her base."

Brewer, however, said the sales tax vote has nothing to do with her chances of getting reelected.

The invisible party in all this is presumed Democratic nominee Terry Goddard. On Friday, as he has done now for months, Goddard refused to say whether he supports higher taxes.

"I haven't made up my mind on it yet," he said. Goddard, who formally entered the race last month after a two-month exploratory period, said voters will have to wait to hear his plans for dealing with the budget.

"The series of statements and the programs, discussions will simply happen later, in March," he said.